Tool or Toy?

The PC turned 30 recently, prompting a spate of suggestions that its days are numbered. The IBM 5150, launched in August 1981, was the world’s first mass-produced personal computer. Yet one of the people responsible for creating it says the PC is going the way of the typewriter and vinyl records.

Mark Dean, a senior technical officer at IBM, was one of the team that designed the 5150. IBM sold its PC division to Lenovo in 2005 and Dean, who uses a tablet these days, says it was a smart move.

“PCs are being replaced at the centre of computing... by new ideas about the role that computing can play in progress,” he says. “These days, it’s becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact. It is there that computing can have the most powerful impact on economy, society and people’s lives.”

Current sales statistics suggest we’ve already entered the post-PC era. Market researcher Gartner says the PC market in Western Europe declined 19% in the second quarter of 2011, although how much of that decline can be attributed to the slow economic climate is unclear. The only major manufacturer to show growth in that period was Apple – just 0.5%. No prizes for guessing which product sold the most.

There have been 25 million iPads shipped worldwide since its launch early last year, and it is in the vanguard of a quantum change in personal computing. Information and analysis provider IHS forecasts that shipments of internet-enabled consumer electronics devices will exceed those of PCs by 2013 (those figures include TV sets and game consoles). By 2015, IHS predicts, more than 780 million of these devices will be shipping per year, compared to 479 million PCs. They’ll be the prime method of internet access at home, while at work or on the move, the tablet will hold sway.

But support for the tablet as the future of computing is far from unanimous. The judges for Greentree’s GAME ON competition (www.greentreegameon.com) are all major users of technology, but offered varying views about the iPad. Most of them have one, but only two use it as their primary computer. Some cite compatibility with Windows applications and ease of typing, while others think it’s still to become a true business tool and are concerned about letting them into secure business networks.

Steve Ranger, Editor of UK computing news site Silicon.com, is more concerned about the implications for computing development if it’s going to be dominated by consumer-oriented devices that are locked down to perform specific functions using pre-loaded applications. Innovations, he argues, came through programmable computers. Users became inventors, and Ranger fears losing that. “The risk is that instead of participating in a computing revolution we will end up passive consumers of it,” he says.

For now, however, the iPad is the product all the computer makers want to beat. Some have already fallen by the wayside. HP recently quit the tablets and mobiles business, and its TouchPad – which was marketed as an iPad killer – is now being heavily discounted by retailers. Google’s purchase of Motorola hints that it has plans for developing Android devices where software and hardware are integrated. Microsoft says its next operating system, Windows 8, will scale from small touchscreen devices to more conventional PCs.

Ranger says what Apple’s rivals have to develop are devices that are cheaper through focusing on useful applications rather than flash bells & whistles, are able to connect easily with other systems (iPad doesn’t have USB or SD) and support popular software like Flash. They have to be user-friendly, especially for non-techies, and they need a support system at least as good as, if not better than, Apple Store and Genius Bars.

Given proper development and marketing, a viable iPad alternative that businesses will embrace is possible. Apple, however, remains the sexiest product and has a head start. Best of luck, developers.

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